前三季度全社會用電量累計7.41萬億千瓦時——第三產業用電量延續快速增長勢頭
來源(yuan)：國家(jia)能源(yuan)局(ju)網站
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發布時(shi)間：2024-11-04
用(yong)電(dian)量是體現(xian)經濟活動的重要指標之(zhi)一。近日國家能源局發布的數據顯(xian)示，今年前三季度，全社會用(yong)電(dian)量累計7.41萬億千瓦時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長7.9%；同期GDP同比增(zeng)(zeng)長4.8%，用(yong)電(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)明顯(xian)高于GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)。
前三季度(du)用電量增(zeng)(zeng)速為何會高于GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速？
“電(dian)力是國民經(jing)濟重要的(de)保障性行業，全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)與(yu)(yu)國內生產總值(zhi)規模呈強正相關關系，且全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)與(yu)(yu)GDP增(zeng)速(su)變化趨勢(shi)總體同步。”中(zhong)國電(dian)力企業聯合會專職副理事長王抒祥分析說，但由(you)于全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)與(yu)(yu)GDP存在(zai)較大結構(gou)性差(cha)異，導(dao)致(zhi)全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)與(yu)(yu)GDP增(zeng)速(su)之間(jian)存在(zai)偏(pian)差(cha)。經(jing)濟、氣溫(wen)等因素會引起(qi)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)與(yu)(yu)GDP的(de)結構(gou)變化及波(bo)動，也導(dao)致(zhi)電(dian)力消費彈性系數（用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)/GDP增(zeng)速(su)）產生波(bo)動。
近年來，我國(guo)電(dian)能替代(dai)在(zai)農業(ye)、服務業(ye)、工(gong)業(ye)、居民生活等(deng)(deng)領域深(shen)入推(tui)進，電(dian)氣化(hua)水(shui)平持續(xu)(xu)提升。同時，5G、大數據(ju)、云計算、人工(gong)智能、電(dian)動汽車等(deng)(deng)新興(xing)行業(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)高速增(zeng)長，共同拉動近幾年電(dian)力消(xiao)費增(zeng)速總體高于GDP增(zeng)速，今年前三季度(du)仍(reng)然延續(xu)(xu)這一趨勢。
除了有(you)電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化水平(ping)(ping)繼續提(ti)升這一因(yin)素(su)(su)外，今年(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)初(chu)以及夏季氣(qi)溫(wen)因(yin)素(su)(su)對用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量變化影響(xiang)顯著。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)2月份全國(guo)(guo)平(ping)(ping)均氣(qi)溫(wen)明顯低于(yu)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期，拉(la)動采暖(nuan)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長，當(dang)月居(ju)民生(sheng)活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長24%。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)八(ba)九月份，我國(guo)(guo)平(ping)(ping)均氣(qi)溫(wen)均為1961年(nian)(nian)(nian)以來歷(li)史(shi)同(tong)期最高(gao)，西南、華(hua)東(dong)、華(hua)中區域(yu)氣(qi)溫(wen)明顯高(gao)于(yu)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期，區域(yu)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量高(gao)速增(zeng)(zeng)長，拉(la)動這兩個月全國(guo)(guo)全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速均超(chao)過8%，也拉(la)動今年(nian)(nian)(nian)三季度全國(guo)(guo)全社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速高(gao)于(yu)二(er)季度。
記者還(huan)注意(yi)到，第(di)(di)三產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)延續快速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長勢(shi)頭，互(hu)聯網及充換電服(fu)務業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)高速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。前(qian)三季(ji)度(du)，第(di)(di)三產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長11.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年同(tong)(tong)期提高1.1個百分點，對(dui)全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長的貢獻率為25.9%。一、二、三季(ji)度(du)第(di)(di)三產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長14.3%、9.2%、10.5%，各(ge)季(ji)度(du)均保(bao)持快速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長勢(shi)頭。前(qian)三季(ji)度(du)，第(di)(di)三產業(ye)中的各(ge)子行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)均超(chao)過5%，其中，批發(fa)(fa)和(he)零(ling)售業(ye)、租(zu)賃(lin)和(he)商務服(fu)務業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超(chao)過12%。在移動(dong)互(hu)聯網、大數據、云計算(suan)等快速(su)(su)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)帶動(dong)下，互(hu)聯網和(he)相關服(fu)務用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長24.4%；電動(dong)汽車保(bao)持高速(su)(su)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，充換電服(fu)務業(ye)前(qian)三季(ji)度(du)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長56.7%。
分(fen)區(qu)域看，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)所有省份用(yong)電(dian)量均(jun)為(wei)正增長，中部(bu)和(he)(he)西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)用(yong)電(dian)量增速超過全(quan)(quan)國(guo)平均(jun)增長水平。前(qian)三季度(du)，東、中、西部(bu)和(he)(he)東北地(di)區(qu)全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)比分(fen)別(bie)增長7.8%、8.3%、8.7%和(he)(he)3.2%。
中(zhong)國電力(li)企業聯合(he)會統計與(yu)數(shu)據(ju)中(zhong)心主任侯文(wen)捷認為(wei)，前三季度，中(zhong)部(bu)地(di)區全社會用電量增(zeng)速超過全國平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)，主要是受服(fu)務(wu)業及(ji)居民生活用電增(zeng)長(chang)拉(la)動。前三季度中(zhong)部(bu)地(di)區的(de)服(fu)務(wu)業及(ji)居民生活用電量同(tong)比分別增(zeng)長(chang)14.4%、14.3%，在(zai)四大地(di)區中(zhong)均(jun)居首位。
西部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增速超全(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)的原因則更為復雜。前三季度，西部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)第(di)二(er)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比增長7.7%，居各地(di)(di)區(qu)首(shou)位，對本(ben)地(di)(di)區(qu)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增長的貢獻率達(da)到63.9%。第(di)二(er)產業(ye)(ye)中，由于西部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)能源等資源更具價格優(you)勢，西部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)的四大高(gao)載能行業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增速達(da)到了6.2%，大幅領先(xian)于其他區(qu)域以及全(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)，除四大高(gao)載能行業(ye)(ye)外，西部(bu)(bu)(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)的高(gao)技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)、消費品制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)也均高(gao)于全(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均水平(ping)(ping)。