前三季度全社會用電量累計7.41萬億千瓦時——第三產業用電量延續快速增長勢頭
來源：經濟日報
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發(fa)布時間：2024-11-01
用電量(liang)是體現經(jing)濟活動的(de)重要指標之一。近日國家能源局發布的(de)數(shu)據顯(xian)示(shi)，今年前三季度(du)，全社會用電量(liang)累計7.41萬(wan)億千瓦時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.9%；同期(qi)GDP同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.8%，用電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速明顯(xian)高于(yu)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速。
前(qian)三季(ji)度用電量增速為(wei)何(he)會高于GDP增速？
“電(dian)(dian)力是國民經(jing)濟重要的保障性行業，全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)與(yu)(yu)國內生(sheng)產總值規模(mo)呈(cheng)強正(zheng)相關關系(xi)，且全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)與(yu)(yu)GDP增(zeng)速(su)(su)變化(hua)趨勢總體同步。”中國電(dian)(dian)力企業聯合會(hui)專職副理事長王抒祥分析說(shuo)，但(dan)由(you)于全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)與(yu)(yu)GDP存在(zai)較(jiao)大結構性差異，導致全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)與(yu)(yu)GDP增(zeng)速(su)(su)之(zhi)間存在(zai)偏差。經(jing)濟、氣溫(wen)等因(yin)素(su)會(hui)引起用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)與(yu)(yu)GDP的結構變化(hua)及波動，也導致電(dian)(dian)力消費彈性系(xi)數（用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)/GDP增(zeng)速(su)(su)）產生(sheng)波動。
近(jin)年(nian)來，我(wo)國電(dian)能替代在農業、服務業、工(gong)業、居民生(sheng)活等領域深入推進，電(dian)氣化(hua)水平持(chi)續提升(sheng)。同時，5G、大(da)數據(ju)、云計算、人工(gong)智能、電(dian)動汽車等新興行(xing)業用電(dian)量高(gao)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長，共同拉動近(jin)幾年(nian)電(dian)力消(xiao)費增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)總體高(gao)于GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)，今(jin)年(nian)前三季度(du)仍然延(yan)續這一趨勢。
除(chu)了有電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化水平(ping)(ping)繼續提(ti)升(sheng)這(zhe)一(yi)因(yin)素(su)外，今(jin)年年初(chu)以(yi)及(ji)夏季氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)因(yin)素(su)對用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)變化影響顯(xian)(xian)著(zhu)。今(jin)年2月(yue)份全(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)明顯(xian)(xian)低于(yu)去年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)，拉動采暖用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)快速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，當月(yue)居民(min)生(sheng)活用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)24%。今(jin)年八九月(yue)份，我(wo)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)均為1961年以(yi)來歷史同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)最(zui)高(gao)(gao)，西南(nan)、華(hua)東、華(hua)中區(qu)域(yu)(yu)氣(qi)(qi)溫(wen)明顯(xian)(xian)高(gao)(gao)于(yu)去年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)，區(qu)域(yu)(yu)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)高(gao)(gao)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，拉動這(zhe)兩個月(yue)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速均超過8%，也(ye)拉動今(jin)年三季度(du)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速高(gao)(gao)于(yu)二季度(du)。
記者還注意(yi)到，第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)延續快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)勢頭，互聯(lian)網(wang)及充換電(dian)(dian)(dian)服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)高(gao)(gao)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。前(qian)三(san)季(ji)(ji)度，第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)11.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)比(bi)上年同(tong)期提高(gao)(gao)1.1個百分點(dian)，對全社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的貢獻率為(wei)25.9%。一、二、三(san)季(ji)(ji)度第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)14.3%、9.2%、10.5%，各(ge)季(ji)(ji)度均保持(chi)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)勢頭。前(qian)三(san)季(ji)(ji)度，第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中的各(ge)子行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)均超過5%，其(qi)中，批發(fa)和零售業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、租賃和商務(wu)服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)超過12%。在移動(dong)互聯(lian)網(wang)、大數據、云計(ji)算等快速(su)發(fa)展帶(dai)動(dong)下(xia)，互聯(lian)網(wang)和相關服務(wu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)24.4%；電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車保持(chi)高(gao)(gao)速(su)發(fa)展，充換電(dian)(dian)(dian)服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)前(qian)三(san)季(ji)(ji)度用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)56.7%。
分區域看，全國所有省(sheng)份(fen)用(yong)電量均為(wei)正增長，中(zhong)部和西(xi)部地區用(yong)電量增速超過全國平(ping)均增長水平(ping)。前(qian)三季度(du)，東(dong)、中(zhong)、西(xi)部和東(dong)北地區全社會用(yong)電量同比分別增長7.8%、8.3%、8.7%和3.2%。
中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)電力企(qi)業聯合(he)會統計與數據中(zhong)(zhong)心主(zhu)任(ren)侯文(wen)捷認為(wei)，前(qian)三(san)季度，中(zhong)(zhong)部地區(qu)(qu)全社會用(yong)(yong)電量增(zeng)速(su)超過全國(guo)平均水平，主(zhu)要是受服務(wu)(wu)業及居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活用(yong)(yong)電增(zeng)長拉動。前(qian)三(san)季度中(zhong)(zhong)部地區(qu)(qu)的服務(wu)(wu)業及居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活用(yong)(yong)電量同比分別增(zeng)長14.4%、14.3%，在(zai)四大地區(qu)(qu)中(zhong)(zhong)均居(ju)首(shou)位。
西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速超(chao)全國(guo)平均(jun)水平的(de)原(yuan)因則更為復(fu)雜。前三季(ji)度，西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)第(di)二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比增(zeng)長(chang)7.7%，居各(ge)地(di)區(qu)(qu)首位，對本地(di)區(qu)(qu)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)貢獻率達(da)到63.9%。第(di)二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)中，由于西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)能源等資源更具價格優勢，西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)的(de)四大高(gao)(gao)(gao)載(zai)能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速達(da)到了(le)6.2%，大幅(fu)領(ling)先(xian)于其他區(qu)(qu)域以及全國(guo)平均(jun)水平，除四大高(gao)(gao)(gao)載(zai)能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)外，西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)的(de)高(gao)(gao)(gao)技(ji)術及裝備制造業(ye)(ye)(ye)、消費(fei)品制造業(ye)(ye)(ye)也均(jun)高(gao)(gao)(gao)于全國(guo)平均(jun)水平。（記者 王軼辰(chen)）